As many of you know, certain contractual agreements entered into under SEC Rule 15c2-12 (the “Rule”) require ongoing disclosures by municipal securities issuers. These disclosures may include financial information, operational information and event notices disclosing the occurrence of specific events that may have an impact on an issuer’s outstanding bonds. These disclosures are to be provided to the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (“MSRB”), and more specifically MSRB’s Electronic Municipal Market Access (“EMMA”) website.

These continuing disclosure requirements can be confusing and in  response to municipal issuers’ requests the MSRB released additional guidance and tools to help issuers file correct and timely disclosures to the EMMA website.

We thought it would be helpful to you and your colleagues to forward the recently released MSRB continuing disclosure guide providing issuers with a road map of their obligations under the Rule.  The guide provides issuers with a detailed breakdown of the steps that should be followed to submit bond documents, annual financial statements and other necessary disclosures to EMMA, as well as cites numerous federal enforcement actions in which issuers sometimes failed to file the required information.

The MSRB also launched a new email reminder tool to help issuers submit timely disclosures to the EMMA website.  The  tool alerts the issuer of approaching due dates for annual or quarterly financial disclosures to EMMA.  Scheduling email reminders on the EMMA website can help ensure timely filing of the issuer’s annual financial information and audited financial statements.  Up to three email addresses can be included to schedule a reminder, which ensures that anyone with a role in preparing and filing financial disclosures is advised of upcoming filing deadlines.  Learn more about the email reminder tool and read the instructions for scheduling and managing email reminders.

Our entire public finance team is available to assist you and answer any questions you may have regarding these applications.  Please call us if you need some assistance.

Recent Actions against Issuers

The MSRB Guide to Disclosures was released in part, due to SEC actions against Harrisburg, Pa. and West Clark Community Schools in Clark County, Indiana as well as charges against the State of Illinois over faulty pension liability disclosure.  In each of these cases, the SEC investigation found that these issuers were not in compliance with the continuing disclosure agreements.

Harrisburg had a major financial liability due to an incinerator financing and the SEC charged the city for failing to stay current on its continuing disclosure documents, while simultaneously telling the market misleading information in speeches and other materials. The Clark Community School District in Indiana, and its underwriter, were charged with falsely claiming the issuer was complying with continuing disclosure obligations.

The SEC action against the State of Illinois was in part due to the State’s failures to properly “disclose that its statutory plan significantly underfunded the state’s pension obligations.”  According to a March 13th Wall Street Journal editorial, “it’s now official: The Land of Lincoln has the nation’s most reckless and dishonest state government when it comes to pension liabilities”; the state’s “accounting practices would get private market participants thrown in jail.”

Departing SEC commissioner and former chairman, Elise Walter, who was a strong advocate for increased municipal transparency, said issuers and transaction participants should now understand that the SEC is serious about muni enforcement.  “We’ve come a very long way in the last five years from people who asked me for safe harbors from anti-fraud provisions, so that there were things that people could say and never be subject to fraud for it, which I found astounding as a request,” she said.  There has been a growing “understanding that this is a securities market and it is subject to securities market rules.”

Future Enforcement

Walter recently stated that the bottom line is municipal market participants who rely on continuing disclosure data get cheated if municipal issuers are not living up to their disclosure agreements.  “There are a lot of people out there who are not following through on what they are contracted to do,” she said.  The important part of that is what underlies it, which means issuers should be not allowed to avoid disclosing current information and then, when they are preparing to do another bond deal, say, “Oh, whoops! I’ll bring it up to date!”  “You should not be able to engage in that kind of behavior and it’s not right that investors in those municipal bonds have no current information,” Ms. Walters said.

As Walter departs the commission, there remain challenges on various regulatory levels.  Walter said she has no regrets, but wishes she could have achieved more, especially the legislation called for by a muni market report, which was prepared by the SEC last year and supported by all of its commissioners.  One recommendation in the report was for Congress to give the SEC the authority to dictate the timing and content of issuer’s secondary market disclosures.  While that legislation has not passed, there is traction for additional legislation on the federal level which will make it more difficult and/or costly for municipal issuers to come to market with a new bond issuance if they have not been timely on prior continuing disclosure requirements.

Detroit

Even though the SEC has no jurisdiction over bankruptcy proceedings, they have stated that they are keeping an eye on the City of Detroit and its bankruptcy filing.  The City’s emergency manager, Kevyn Orr, is attempting to treat general obligation bondholders as holders of unsecured debt and offering them pennies on the dollar for their investments.  SEC muni chief John Cross has stated that Detroit’s situation in part illustrates the magnitude of pension liability disclosure issues, which is something the SEC will continue to monitor from an enforcement standpoint.

“If you look at the Detroit bankruptcy that just occurred, something like $3.5 billion in direct pension liabilities and another $6.5 billion in health care post-employment liabilities,” Cross said.  “Almost half of their total $19 billion in exposure is related to those topics.  That’s not to say that’s what Detroit’s problem is, but it is illustrative of the magnitude of that issue, potentially.”

Walter said the Detroit issue could represent a wider disclosure problem if investors in general obligation bonds believe the pledge behind those bonds is much stronger than secured revenue backed bonds and issuers that don’t follow through with their commitments when they are under fiscal stress. “There can very well be disclosure implications among other things depending on what happens there, because people need to know what they’re buying,” she said.

For additional information regarding Continuing Disclosures and issuer’s responsibilities as well as a list of these disclosures and material event notices, please click here.

There are continual changes in municipal disclosure legislation and requirements. We will continue to lead in this area and as changes occur, we will do our best to keep you apprised.    Please feel free to contact me or any other public finance banker of our firm with any questions.

Thank you for your continued confidence.

Sincerely

Robert Vail

Vice President & Director of Public Finance

Bernardi Securities, Inc.

September 9, 2013

 

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Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one [i]

— Charles Mackay

It can be said that relative portfolio outperformance – and the overall security of principal – is in many ways dependent on the avoidance of investing or divesting with the herd. Mackay’s words from his famous work Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds serve as an important lesson to avoid irrational herd-like moves. As we have learned over the last decade, only hindsight is 20/20 when it comes to pinpointing irrational valuations. The avoidance of herd-like situations is precisely why separately managed municipal bond portfolios offer an advantage to bond mutual funds or ETFs.

Separately managed account control

A separately managed bond account allows for greater control and is less subject to the fears of other investors in terms of mass redemptions. In the rising rate, headline risk environment we are experiencing today, this is a vital defense mechanism of a separately managed portfolio. The ability to select and also remove individual bonds from your account gives you the advantage of choice. Consequently, you neither need to invest nor sell with the herd.

According to the Investment Company Institute[ii] we have experienced 13 straight weeks of outflows from municipal bond mutual funds, amounting to a total of $35.3 billion. Total bond fund outflows (taxable and tax-exempt) over this period have amounted to just over $98.4 billion. The move in interest rates have corroborated fund flows over this time period, as the 10-year Treasury has jumped to 2.76% from 2.11% while the MMA 10-year “AAA” municipal index has increased to 3.07% from 2.22%.[iii]

Mitigating the consequences of fund outflows

The last time such a significant outflow from municipal bond funds occurred was at the end of 2010, when Meredith Whitney called attention to the strained fiscal situations and sometimes inadequate disclosures within the municipal market. From December 2010 until April of the next year, municipal fund outflows totaled $35.4 billion. The bond market was able to reverse this sell-off weeks later once investors realized the overblown nature of her prediction, but by then, the damage had been done.All bond investors – no matter what investment strategy they use – experience paper losses in their bond portfolios when the above mentioned sizeable fund outflows occur. When selling supply significantly outweighs demand, bond prices become depressed and bond yields often rise substantially. This is an immutable law of bond finance, if you will.

However, owning individual bonds in a separate account enables flexibility to both avoid and mitigate certain aspects of this market paradigm. For one, usually bond funds do not have a maturity date and there is no guarantee they will return to their original value. Barring default, individual bonds return principal at maturity, and as their maturity date approaches, their intrinsic value naturally moves to a par ($100) price. Additionally, individual investors within bond funds are not able to customize their tax-loss harvesting by offsetting capital gains with losses taken on specific bonds.

The cost of big bond fund redemptions

Most mutual funds maintain a small cash cushion in order to mitigate the pricing impact from routine liquidation levels from investors. They do not maintain a cushion to satisfy massive redemptions as they have experienced in recent weeks. Therefore, they must sell a portion of fund holdings in order to raise cash to meet redemptions. This is putting additional pressure on an already tense market; as noted, the footing of the municipal market is weaker today than it was in late 2010 due to a more volatile backdrop of escalating rates paired with headline risk arising from the Detroit bankruptcy petition and other stressed municipal credits.

As an example, the iShares MUB, the largest ETF that tracks the municipal market, currently sells for LESS than its component holdings – individual municipal bonds – due to the selling pressure of individual investors. The ETF currently trades at a 0.96% discount to its net asset value (NAV) versus a 0.31% average premium since 2007.[iv] Basically investors are trading this ETF at a value less than where the individual component bonds are priced. Thus, if an investor needed to liquidate a portion of their position in MUB, they would be hit with an immediate 0.96% discount, thanks to the herd’s move. In late June, this discount was as large as 2.85% – larger than many of today’s coupon payment rates.

This pricing anomaly probably will reverse itself at some point in the future. Time will tell. In the meantime, it should serve as a good lesson as one of the perils of investing with the municipal bond herd.

As always, please call us if you would like to review your municipal bond portfolio or if you have any questions.

Scott R. Rausch, CFA
Portfolio Manager
Bernardi Securities, Inc.
August 28, 2013
 

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[i] MacKay, Charles (1980). Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (with a foreword by Andrew Tobias, 1841). New York: Harmony Books
[ii]http://www.ici.org/research/stats/flows. The Investment Company Institute is the national association of U.S. investment companies, including mutual funds, closed-end funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and unit investment trusts (UITs). Members of ICI manage total assets of $15.3 trillion and serve more than 90 million shareholders
[iii] Source: Bloomberg
[iv] Source: Bloomberg

 
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The bond market experienced sharp, rapid adjustment in the second quarter — arguably the greatest since the fall of 2008. The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 1.63% in early May and finished June yielding 2.49%. As of June 28, year-to-date it had lost 2.57% of its value.

The 10-year, “AAA” rated Municipal Market Data (MMD) municipal bond index reacted similarly during this two-month period ending June with a yield of 2.56% compared to 1.90% as of May 28. The recent rise in bond yields translate into significant price declines sparing few, if any, bond investors. For some, forced to sell during the tumult, it was a bloodbath reminiscent of Q4 2008 and Q1 2009.

The Great Rotation debate 

Certain pundits claim the increasing bond yields of the last few months mark the beginning of the “Great Rotation” from bonds into equities and record amounts of cash coming off the sidelines. No one can be certain at this point if the cycle has turned. It is too early to tell in our view as we keep in mind several times post Q3 2008 when Treasury bond yields increased by 50-60 basis points only to subsequently see bond prices rally and yields fall. Certainly we are wary bond investors, but we have seen this before.

A case can be made perhaps that the recent bond sell-off presents a short-term, attractive buying opportunity. Some of the best investments we made for our clients in recent years occurred when we invested client cash in the last quarter of 2008, the first quarter of 2009 and in 2010 following the airing of the well-known “60 Minutes” municipal bond market segment. If the Fed does not sell in quantity, prices will stop falling and may reverse their recent trend. 

Separate account, laddered portfolios vs. municipal bond funds

Almost universally, our client’s separate account, laddered portfolios handled last quarter’s turmoil much better than the broader bond market. This is a similar storyline to what our clients’ portfolios experienced during the 2008-2009 financial crises. These portfolios avoided much of the damage resulting from the panicked selling of many bond funds, bond ETFs and hedge funds. In contrast, the June experience of many bond fund and ETF investors was bad. Fund investors unloaded shares at a record pace — $6 billion worth in two weeks — forcing some funds to sell bond holdings to dealers at a time when prices were plummeting. These funds recorded significant losses.

One thing we know with certainty after three decades specializing in this business: it is difficult to hedge or effectively short the municipal market and when municipal bond funds are forced en masse to sell bonds to meet redemptions, losses for shareholders are magnified. For example, the iShares S&P National AMT- Free Muni Bond (MUB) lost 1.76% in value in ONE week (June 13-20) and the Pimco Total Return Fund lost 2.59% in June. Certain “inflation protected” funds lost more than 6% of their value in the second quarter. Many investors learned in June share sale prices can veer significantly from NAV in a market rout because the funds’ advertised liquidity feature tends to disappear. 

Here is an excerpt from our November 2008 market update

“This financial crisis has reinforced in our minds the significant advantage enjoyed by investors who use a SEPARATELY MANAGED, NON LEVERAGED bond portfolio strategy. This approach to bond investing lessens your volatility and increases your liquidity……..Among other things, separate account management allows for quality investments to be held when the market moves sharply downward. There are no forced sales in a separately managed bond portfolio unlike what often occurs in bond funds when prices plummet. When the general market recovers, so does the paper value of your investment………Additionally, if you need to raise capital you simply request bids for a portion of the bond portfolio; even in this market, you will find bidders for smaller blocks of quality, shorter maturity, fixed rate bond issues. This simple strategy has worked well for decades and we expect that won’t change anytime soon.”

We are not downplaying the reality that separate account portfolios lost value over the past two months. We remind you investing in the bond market entails risk, which can result in losses.

Importantly, recently incurred portfolio paper losses for the most part will be offset over time as income and maturity proceeds are reinvested into higher yielding bonds. For income-oriented investors, adhering to a disciplined strategy of investing in quality bonds laddered over an intermediate time frame remains the soundest way to invest in the municipal bond market. 

Separate account, laddered portfolios vs. money markets

We have had many conversations recently with concerned clients about the recent decline in portfolio valuations. Some fear what will happen if interest rates continue to rise and bond prices decline further. Some have asked, “Would I be better off selling my bonds and just holding cash until bond prices stop falling?” After all, as yields increase, the yield on cash should grow in tandem, while existing bond prices would decline in value as yields rise. This would lead one to reasonably wonder if a simple money market fund investment would outperform a fixed maturity, laddered bond portfolio. One of our portfolio managers, Scott Rausch, CFA, recently prepared a couple of scenario analyses that look at this very issue.

The first is a simplified scenario consisting of a $1.2 million, equally laddered municipal bond portfolio spread over six years (i.e. $200,000 par maturing in each year). Bond quality is split 40% to 60% between “AAA” and “A” rated bonds, respectively, and initial yields are based off of actual Municipal Market Data (MMD) levels for bonds settling August 1st of this year. This portfolio is compared to a tax-exempt money market fund, which currently yields zero percent. 

These portfolios were then exposed to a 100 basis point increase in interest rates, applied to all maturity dates, at the end of each twelve-month period. Maturing bonds and income from the bond portfolio were rolled over at the new, higher six-year rate each year. 
Even in this extreme rising rate environment, the bond portfolio only trails the performance of the money market fund by 26 basis points on an annualized basis (2.23% for the bonds versus 2.49% for all cash). However, tax-exempt income for the bond portfolio is greater — $217,248 versus the money market’s income of $190,473. The laddered portfolio delivers higher income. 

This is an interesting exercise in bond math, but a six-year run of yearly 100 basis point rate increases across the entire yield curve is unlikely to actually occur. Thus, we looked at recent history for a more realistic scenario, and focused on the period from June 2003 to June 2009.

The burst Internet stock bubble fed into a recession that started in March 2001, and was exacerbated by the economic shock resulting from the September 11th attacks. In reaction, the Federal Reserve embarked on a series of cuts in the Federal funds rate, reaching a then unheard-of 1.00% in June 2003. As the economy improved, the Fed gradually raised short-term interest rates over a two-year period from 2004 to 2006. This rate then stabilized for 15 months, and dropped precipitously over the next 15 months.  
 

We used municipal bond yield data from this period to create a $1 million tax-exempt portfolio. The model portfolio has $200,000 par value maturing each June over a five-year ladder. Our kickoff date is June 2003, when the Fed funds rate bottomed out. Each June, maturing bonds and all income are reinvested at the new five-year bond yield. The model assumes a 40% to 60% weighting of “AAA” rated and “A-“ rated general obligation bonds, respectively. Spot bond yields for our 2003 kickoff and each succeeding year are based directly on the Bloomberg fair market curve indexes for the relevant maturity dates. The results of the tax-exempt money market fund are based on actual returns of the Vanguard Tax-Exempt Money Market Fund during this period. Here are the results:
  

As you can see, the laddered bond portfolio lags behind the money market fund in two of the first three years, but as each tranche of the bond portfolio matures, the proceeds and all interest are reinvested at the new five-year yield. In all years over the actual five-year reinvestment period, the $200,000 par value maturity proceeds are reinvested at higher rates than that tranche’s original yield. 

As an example, three years into this model as June 2006 arrives, the $200,000 that had been producing cash flow at a 1.66% yield is reinvested in June 2011 bonds yielding 4.10%. This is a 244 basis point increase. As you can see, as time progresses the laddered portfolio outperforms, as more and more of its assets are locked into higher yielding bonds.

The outperformance of the laddered bond portfolio, in part, reflects the power of compounding interest from higher yielding bonds found at different points of the historically upward-sloping yield curve. This dynamic helps to cushion the lesser paper value of some bonds held at lower yields. Additionally, any unrealized paper losses on lower yielding securities diminish as maturity approaches, becoming zero at payoff.

The average U.S. economic expansion lasts three and one quarter years, per the National Bureau of Economic Research. Eventually, interest rates and bond yields decline, as they have always done. When this begins to occur, the higher yields captured in the laddered portfolio will significantly outperform cash.

Finally, the tax-exempt income for the bond portfolio is $177,377 — versus the money market’s income of $142,074. The laddered portfolio delivers higher income and higher total return.

Opportunistic investing in imperfect markets

This brings us to a critical point — our model does not take into account any sort of competent, active management. It makes no allowance for opportunistically capitalizing on market mispricings, or for superior credit analysis, or for any other value-added feature of our bond portfolio research and management process. The municipal bond market is, by its vast and disparate nature, inherently less efficient than the U.S. Treasury or high-grade corporate markets. Our clients’ portfolios benefit from this dynamic.

Our analysis also excludes the issue of tax loss harvesting swaps by which the bond manager takes losses in carefully selected, lower coupon bonds so that the client can shield income from another source. Sales proceeds can then be invested at new, higher-yielding tax-exempt securities. This can benefit investors seeking maximum tax efficiency and the further enhancement of portfolio returns.

For income oriented investors with a mid- or long-term perspective, we see a notable benefit to rapidly rising yields and an imperfect market — the opportunity to take advantage of heavy selling by bond fund and ETF managers who are forced to sell bonds to meet the redemptions of panicked investors. We have seen this many times over several decades managing bond portfolios. We recently saw this in June, as multiple investors tried to sell similar bond holdings at the same time, with sellers greatly outnumbering buyers, leading to a significant decline in prices.

When these markets occur, we try to avoid selling and try mightily to add quality credits at attractive yields to client portfolios. We did this two months ago. We did this in 2010. We did this in 2008-2009. And we will do it again in the years ahead.

Periods when bond prices drop significantly and yields increase in a short period of time present wonderful investment opportunities for a committed fixed income investor.

This is not the end

The market events of the past few months give us a glimpse into our bond market future. It has been quite a stretch, no doubt, and we expect more future volatility.

Today, market liquidity is more tenuous than in past years. This is the result of dealers holding less inventory, increasing regulatory requirements, a smaller investor base and more retail ownership through mutual funds and ETFs rather than direct holdings. This liquidity dynamic may cause problems and anxiety for ephemeral bond investors. For committed investors with separate account management, laddered portfolios this dynamic are less problematical. In fact, a market like we are currently experiencing can offer wonderful investment opportunities. 

A silver lining in June’s storm cloud: when a bond investor is selling at distressed prices there usually is another investor buying. Expect more price volatility and remember that volatility often brings opportunity.

The current state of the bond market reminds me of Sir Winston Churchill’s observation in November of 1942, “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

Opportunity in muniland — remembering, why bonds?

We believe last quarter’s disorderly secondary market with its diminished level of liquidity portends one bit of good news for income oriented bond investors: higher nominal and relative yields and therefore better incomes.

In our view here are the reasons for investing in bonds: income, safety, and the stability of principal over an intermediate time period. Despite the sell-off of recent weeks, quality municipal bonds still hold the characteristics that make them alluring to investors. They offer a cushion against stock market volatility, security of principal and a steady income stream exempt from federal income taxes. 

Clearly, today’s market requires a high degree of credit discrimination. We have long stated that “municipal bonds are not all created equal” and focused our credit research expertise on the “three pillars”: underlying credit quality, deal purpose and deal structure. This credit discipline is critical in today’s market.

The municipal bond market is arcane and idiosyncratic and that is not going to change anytime soon. This dynamic provides excellent investment opportunities for the committed, income oriented investor. Generally speaking, today’s current market offers excellent value.

Examine Bernardi Securities, Inc. composite portfolios’ 12 year performance numbers and you see consistent, increasing value over many different market cycles. As disquieting as it is to see a 6/30/2013 portfolio valuation down from its earlier year value, the paper losses will be partially offset in the coming months by greater monthly cash flows as reinvestment occurs. Over time this changing dynamic is a positive for income oriented bond portfolios. If you are not convinced, review the value of your bond portfolio as of 10/31/2008 and then again its value 7 to 9 months later. Additionally, some of the best performing bonds in your portfolio today are those bought in late 2008 and early 2009 when bond prices declined significantly.

The bond market sell-off last quarter reminded us again — a separate account, quality, laddered bond portfolio strategy works very well for income-oriented investors who do not have a short-term perspective.

Thank you for your continued confidence in our bond portfolio research and management process. Please call us if you would like to review the portfolio or if you have any questions.

Sincerely,
Ronald P. Bernardi
President and CEO
August 14, 2013
 
 

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Below are several credit research notes related to the City of Detroit.  Our goal with this commentary is to frame the relevant general obligation bond issue and clearly articulate our credit perspective. 

  • Detroit HAS NOT been on our firm’s list of approved credits for decades.  As a result, our portfolio managed clients have ZERO exposure to Detroit.  Detroit’s deteriorating credit quality has been discernible for decades.  For instance, since 1988, Detroit has run a deficit in the city’s total governmental funds (including transfers and bonds proceeds), SEVENTEEN TIMES. During that same period Detroit has been able to string together two consecutive surpluses only TWICE.  
  • Missteps.  The emergency manager (EM) declared in June that the city’s unlimited tax, general obligation (UTGO) bonds were considered “unsecured”.  By placing bondholders in the same pool as other general creditors it sent a clear message that a bankruptcy filing was imminent.  Perhaps the EM’s posturing was a negotiating ploy, but in our view it represented a serious misstep.  Consider the following: outstanding UTGO bonds total an estimated $500 million, while pensioners and other creditors holding special revenue obligations, pension related certificates of participation and swaps are owed approximately $16 billion.  This disparity demonstrates that unlimited tax, general obligation debt is not the root of Detroit’s financial problems.  Yet, the EM has indicated there is a willingness to spurn UTGO bondholders.  Offering UTGO bondholders a recovery rate of 20 cents on the dollar, while maintaining a coveted art collection worth an estimated $2.5 billion is alarming. 
  • Bankruptcy.  Detroit’s decision to petition a FEDERAL bankruptcy judge to decide which creditors have superior liens suggests local political leaders lack the fortitude to address the city’s financial issues.  Furthermore, the city’s diminished view of “unlimited tax, full faith and credit, without limitation…” has forced bondholders to question the true definition.  In our view this necessitates a Chapter 9 filing in order to answer (and re-affirm) the question on a legal basis, rather than political.  That said the Chapter 9 process will be long and costly for the city.  Recoveries aren’t blossoming in Vallejo, California, Stockton, California or Jefferson County, Alabama.  Personal bankruptcies are demoralizing and have lasting financial affects, municipal bankruptcies are no different.
  • Michigan credit view.  The EM’s position regarding Detroit’s UTGO debt does affect how we view ALL other Michigan LTGO and UTGO bonds.  We are mindful that it is only the EM’s “opinion”.   However, as a consequence and until a federal bankruptcy judge opines or state legislature takes specific actions re-affirming the elevated security status of UTGO and LTGO bonded debt relative to other creditors, we have pulled back from the Michigan G.O. market.  We expect a legal authority to address the security priority of various creditors.   To that end, it is disappointing that the Governor and Michigan legislators have not led on this issue; contrast Detroit’s Chapter 9 filing with Central Falls, R.I. and Governor Chafee and the Rhode Island legislature which enacted a law stating general obligation bonds have a priority status on Chapter 9 filings.
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A MIXED MESSAGE FROM THE FED

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared before the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday, May 22 and offered this testimony:

“For some months, the FOMC has been buying longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month and agency MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee has said that it will continue its securities purchases until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability…….At its most recent meeting, the Committee made clear that it is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its asset purchases to ensure that the stance of monetary policy remains appropriate as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes.”

“Clarity” is a word rarely used to describe Fed speak; oftentimes clarity requires singularity. The Chairman’s May testimony lacked both, was confusing to many and it upset both stock and bond markets. To us, there is a disconnect between present day bond yields and non-Fed induced macro-economic reality.

Our suggestion to income oriented, mattress money bond investors: NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO DEVIATE FROM A WELL THOUGHT OUT BOND PORTFOLIO STRATEGY AND REACH FOR YIELD, INCREASE PORTFOLIO DURATION BEYOND NORMAL LIMITS OR INVEST IN UNTESTED, HYBRID DERIVATIVE INVESTMENT BOND PRODUCTS.

To make the point, we share with you again our August 2007 writing, “The Bond Market Can Intimidate Everyone”. Granted, much time has passed since late summer of 2007 and today’s financial market landscape would have been unimaginable by most back then. Yet, several parallels of the two time periods exist and are noteworthy, in our view.

“What’s past is prologue”, to quote a favorite bard of ours; perhaps the summer of 2007 offers a clue as to what lies ahead for some bond investors.

SOME PROGRESS IN ILLINOIS WITH MUCH WORK TO DO

The dismal days of March have passed and this month brought some good news to the Prairie State. On May 9, the state auctioned $300 million taxable, sales-tax backed bonds rated “AAA” by Standard & Poor’s. There were 11 separate bids with the winning bidder submitting a true interest cost bid of 3.286%. The 10 year maturity initially yielded 2.60% approximately 80 basis points greater than the yield on the 10 year U.S. Treasury bond at the time.

In comparison, last month the state issued lower rated, taxable general obligation bonds and paid 4.31% for the 10 year bond. That yield was 245 basis points over the 10 year Treasury rate at the time. Clearly, the state paid an interest rate penalty to borrow on its general obligation bond pledge.

May’s auction results were a positive development underscoring the fact certain investors are seeking strongly structured, quality bonds and are willing to lend at low rates for issues like the state’s sales-tax backed bonds.

Additionally, the state began the fourth quarter of its fiscal year in April with $8.5 billion in unpaid bills and was able to reduce the backlog to $5.8 billion by May 1st. An infusion of tax revenue was primarily responsible for the decline. This too is a positive development, although the scheduled, partial expiration of a recent income tax increase for fiscal 2015 suggests the backlog will increase absent balanced operating budgets and a solution to the state’s underfunded and growing pension shortfall.

THE HOUSE MOVES ON PENSION REFORM

The urgency for pension reform cannot be understated: annual pension payments will increase by $900 million next year to $6 billion. This sum represents about 17% of the state’s general fund. This past month NASRA published a national study that found about 3% of all state and local government spending is used to fund public pension benefits. The study found Illinois governmental units are allocating 4.89% on average to fund public pension benefits.

On Thursday, May 2 the Illinois House passed a pension reform package sponsored by House Speaker Michael Madigan by a vote of 62-51. Plan sponsors claim the reform measure will reduce the current $97 billion unfunded pension shortfall by $30 billion with overall savings of $150 billion over a 30 year period at which time it would be fully funded. Currently, the state’s public employee retirement systems are approximately 43% funded.

The bill limits annual cost of living increases and raises the retirement age for state employees currently under 45 years of age. It caps benefits and phases in a 2% increase in employee contributions over a two year period and it strengthens the pension payment commitment from its appropriation status to second in stature only to debt service payments.

Governor Pat Quinn and many Democratic legislators support the bill as do House Republican leaders Tom Cross and Senator Christine Radogno. A coalition of public employee unions oppose the bill.

THE SENATE MOVES ON PENSION ISSUE TOO- SHOWDOWN LOOMS

One week after the House passed its pension reform bill, the Senate approved its version of pension reform (Senate Bill 2404) by a vote of 40-16. The Senate bill is less comprehensive than the House bill. The proposal is projected to save approximately $46 billion in pension costs over the next 30 years and trim about $10 billion off the state’s $97 billion of unfunded liabilities. Recently, the state’s pension system released its calculations of the bill’s savings showing only $5 billion in savings, 50% less than projections. The Senate bill calcualtes the plan will be 90% funded in 30 years. The plan offers employees a set of choices of health care and retirement options.

Senate President John Cullerton believes his plan is consistent with the state’s constitution. He believes the House bill is unconstitutional. AFL-CIO Illinois President Michael Carrigan supports the Senate plan while the Illinois Retired Teachers Association opposes it and threatens to file a lawsuit if it is signed into law.

The constitutional issue is far from simple. Both Mr. Madigan and Mr. Cullerton believe their plans will stand up to any constitutional challenges.

Substantive progress needs to be made on this issue. We will have to wait and see how this plays out.

Please call us with your questions and comments.

Sincerely,
President and CEO
Bernardi Securities, Inc.
Ronald P. Bernardi
May 30, 2013

BSI_Slide_California.jpg

STOCKTON’S APRIL FOOLS’ RULING
 “….and it is apparent to me that the City will not be able to perform its obligations to its citizens relating to such fundamental matters as public safety, as well as other basic governmental services, without the ability to have the muscle of the contract impairing power of federal bankruptcy law. Therefore, I am persuaded that the petition was filed in good faith.”
(excerpted from transcript of Judge Christopher M. Klein’s ruling in favor of City of Stockton, California)

This past Monday, April 1, the Honorable Christopher M. Klein, presented a thorough, fifty-four pages “FINDINGS OF FACT AND CONCLUSIONS OF LAW” affirming Stockton, California meets all the requirements to file Chapter 9 status.

The ruling was significant but just the beginning of the battle for the decision leaves many undecided issues. Immediate questions that come to mind, post ruling, include:

“How does the decision impact the municipal bond market?” and “Should investors be worried?”

Our short answer to the first question: “To be determined” and to the second, “some, more than others”. These responses are partly based on a read of the Judge’s transcript as well as the City of Stockton’s “Debt Proposal”, a document it submitted to the court.

Clearly, the decision directly impacts Stockton and some of its creditors immediately. Additionally, the ruling potentially affects municipalities across the State of California: certain investors will look warily at general fund and other unsecured debt issued by California municipalities.

More importantly, the final reorganization plan approved by Judge Klein will determine how “capital market creditors” are treated and will greatly influence investor and market maker views of debt issued by California municipalities and, potentially, communities across the country. The manner in which the plan treats “capital market creditors” will be a defining moment, in our view. 

SOME RULING DETAILS

Judge Klein ruled Stockton has the right to file for Chapter 9 because its situation satisfies all of the requirements. The ruling also states the “capital market creditors” (Assured Guaranty, National Public Finance Guarantee, Wells -Fargo and Franklin Funds) must negotiate “in good faith” with Stockton.

The Judge’s ruling is quite clear on these two points.

The ruling is a short term victory for Stockton and a setback for debt holders. It allows Stockton to use general fund monies to cover operating expenses rather than principal and interest payments and it forces capital market creditors back to the negotiating table to try and work out a “plan of adjustment” with Stockton.

The named creditors, other than Franklin Funds, removed themselves from negotiations when the City informed them it was not asking CalPERS to make any concessions. California Public Employees Retirement System, or CalPERS, is the provider of Stockton’s employees’ defined benefit pension system. The creditor’s action did not sit well with Judge Klein who stated the City’s refusal to ask CalPERS for concessions did not justify the creditors ending their negotiations.

On other important issues the Judge’s ruling is unclear and questions remain.

Here is our interpretation of the ruling and how it relates to some of the unresolved issues:

1. The ruling does not mean capital market creditors will lose all of their money, although it certainly increases the possibility a haircut is forthcoming.

2. The ruling does not mean the Judge accepts the City’s proposed debt reorganization plan. The plan calls for, on average, a 46% discount on net present value basis for debt holders and treats various debt holders differently. For example, the plan calls for 2007 pension bond debt holders to take an 83% haircut (17% is secured by non-general fund monies, i.e. water fund), while 2003 Certificate of Participation debt holders and the City agreed debt holders will take no more than a 19% haircut with a possibility the haircut may be erased entirely over time.

The Judge realizes a give and take negotiation must occur between the City and debt holders and states so in his ruling:

“The City intended the “Ask” to be the opening of negotiation. And this is a very typical thing in reorganization practice or in workout practice before the filing of reorganization….And that’s exactly what the “Ask” was, was just an opening position that formed the basis for conversation with the parties, with a view toward give and take, to the extent of the goal of getting the City in a spot where it would be able to pay its bills as they come due year in/year out could be achieved.”

3. Importantly, the ruling does not state CalPERS is free and clear of having to make concessions. The City did not ask CalPERS to make any concessions and therefore, CalPERS offered none. The Judge did not rule on this issue and the issue remains unresolved. He did state there may be an issue with CalPERS and that any confirmation plan must be fair and equitable with respect to each class of claims that has been impaired or has not accepted a plan. He accklowledged he may have to “GET DOWN INTO THE NITTY-GRITTY OF THE CalPERS SITUATION.”

Here is an excerpted quote taken directly from Judge Klein’s transcript:

“This does not mean that there’s not potentially a serious issue involving CalPERS. But at this point, I do not know what it is. I do not know whether spiked pensions can be reeled back in. There are very complex and difficult questions of law that I could see out there on the horizon….but no plan of adjustment can be confirmed ……unless that plan does not discriminate unfairly and is fair and equitable with respect to each class of claims that is impaired under or has not accepted a plan”
TIME FOR STOCKTON TO “INVITE” CalPERS TO THE TABLE?

CalPERS is the city’s largest creditor. We are not attorneys, but common sense leads us to conclude any reasonable solution to Stockton’s financial problems requires CalPERS involvement. Stockton has not reduced or suspended payments to its employees’ defined benefits pension unlike San Bernardino, CA during its Chapter 9 odyssey. It is difficult to imagine a solvent Stockton in the near future absent adjusting its annual payment to CalPERS which last year collected nearly $30 million (and rising) from the City.

CalPERS claims it cannot authorize a reduction in the City’s retirement contribution and that it has no place at the table. Judge Klein may view the issue differently. The “capital market creditors” argued it is unfair discrimination for them to take a haircut while CalPERS takes none. Judge Klein offered them some hope when he said:

“So if the City makes inappropriate compromises, the day of reckoning will be the day of plan confirmation. And that’s precisely my analysis with respect to the CalPERS situation and the omission of dealing with CalPERS in the City’s “Ask”…….”

So how is a disinterested CalPERS “invited” to the table if Stockton remains unwilling to engage it?

Debt holders should begin negotiating with Stockton “in good faith” as required by law, making concessions and proposing a deal similar to what the City and Ambac Assurance have agreed to with the previously mentioned 2003 Certificate of Participation issue. The City has already agreed to this restructuring so it is reasonable to assume it could serve as a template for other impaired issues.

Perhaps as a tactic, certain concessions offered by debt holders could be made contingent upon CalPERS taking a haircut of some sort. If debt holders offer something substantive and the offer is made in good faith, it may provide the City with a reason to approach CalPERS.

This, of course, is conjecture, but it seems Judge Klein recognizes the City needs to involve CalPERS in its discussions. He understands the final plan of adjustment must be comprehensive, non-discriminatory and equitable to all creditors. He stated clauses in the state constitution must give way to the Federal Bankruptcy Code under the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution because the ability to impair contracts while in Chapter 9 is sometimes the only way to arrive at the desired point of solvency. IN OTHER WORDS, U. S. BANKRUPTCY LAW OVERRIDES CALIFORNIA PENSION LAWS.

In his opening remarks, while enumerating the many circumstances contributing to Stockton’s insolvency, Judge Klein said this:

“And some of the problems were also the incrustation of a multi-decade, largely invisible or nontransparent pattern of above-market compensation for public employees. Among other things, the City offered generous health care benefits, to which employees did not contribute. Retirees had their entire health care benefits paid for by the City. The City permitted, to an unusual degree, so-called “Add Pays” for various jobs that allowed nominal salaries to be increased to totals greater than those prevailing for other municipalities. Some so-called “Add- Pays” are perfectly legitimate and standard features……..and some were regarded as really not what one would find elsewhere, and, therefore, overly generous.”

The key phrases providing a possible clue as to what Judge Klein is thinking are: “multi-decade”, “nontransparent pattern of above market compensation”, “overly generous”. It is notable to us Judge Klein does not use similar phraseology when characterizing (and criticizing) the genesis of some of the City’s outstanding, impaired debt issues.

Judge Klein continues:

“And some of the problems were also rooted in generous retirement practices. The pensions, of course, are themselves a form of implicit compensation. Pensions were allowed to be based on the final year of compensation, and only the final year of compensation, and that compensation could include essentially an unlimited accrued vacation and sick leave. So it was possible to engage in the phenomenon that’s become known as “pension spiking,” in which a pension can wind up being substantially greater than the annual salary that retirees ever had…..In any event, pension spiking was an issue in Stockton because Stockton’s obligations to CalPERS were based on the amount of pensions that were having to be paid out. So projected pension expenses in particular were soaring.”

The City of Stockton itself recognizes altered retirement benefits are a contributing factor to its financial demise and states this in its reorganization plan:

“In addition, the City issued Pension Obligation Bonds (POBs) in 2007 to reduce the cost of the City’s unfunded liabilities largely created by the enhanced PERS retirement benefits.”

In short, the City issued pension bonds, now in default, to cover a portion of the cost of increased benefits; some of the same benefits the Judge belittles.

Payment terms due to debt holders never increased after issuance; the contract never changed to favor debt holders at the expense of the City. The same point cannot be made about a portion of retirement and health benefits that cost Stockton nearly $30 million last year.

Perhaps a starting point of discussion between Stockton and CalPERS should be “the generous retirement practices” cited by Judge Klein.
SOME TAKEAWAYS FROM JUDGE KLEIN’S APRIL RULING

Here are a few thoughts:
1. If Stockton’s re-organization plan, as currently proposed, is approved by Judge Klein, most municipalities across California will see borrowing costs increase for general fund secured debt issues. Certain issuers will lose general market access altogether for these types of loans and it is highly probable more onerous debt security covenants will be required even for secured debt issued by certain municipalities.

2. The national impact of the ruling, at this point, is minimal. Certain states prohibit Chapter 9 filings and many approach the Chapter 9 process differently. A number of states, when confronted with similar situations, have acted differently than California. From our perspective, there are Chapter 9 situations occurring in other parts of the country that have been handled much better than the State of California’s laissez- faire approach.

A review of the Central Falls, Rhode Island Chapter 9 experience and its speedy resolution (it took only 13 months) and, to date, the State of Michigan’s current approach to solving Detroit’s serious financial problems make the point. In both cases, the governors and state legislatures involved themselves. In the Central Falls bankruptcy, bond obligations were honored. This approach benefits Central Falls and municipalities across the state today. A similar approach, if employed, will help Detroit, and in the end, communities across Michigan.

3. California, to date, has approached Chapter 9 filings differently and this damages nearly all California municipalities. We understand some of this is political reality and some of it is California legal reality. But many investors really do not care much for all of that. The point is not to raise a parade of horribles that will befall Stockton and municipalities across California if debt holders are treated unfairly. This is an unknown at this point. Stockton’s residents and current employees have suffered much in recent years so a degree of compassion is due them, no doubt. But Stockton needs to settle with debt holders quickly and equitably. The State of California and CalPERS can help with this. Once broken, trust is difficult to regain and if Stockton debt holders are treated unfairly a segment of the investing public will invest their capital in other places.

4. A final take way is confirmation of a favorite theme of ours:
ADHERENCE TO THE THREE PILLARS OF MUNICIPAL BOND CREDIT RESEARCH

1. ESSENTIAL DEAL PURPOSE

2. SOUND DEAL STRUCTURE

3. SOLID UNDERLYING CREDIT QUALITY

We believe the three should work in tandem. Ideally, a credit is strong in all three areas. This situation occasionally occurs. More realistically, is the situation where a particular issue is lacking in one or perhaps two areas. In this situation if one is to invest, the third pillar needs to be at its highest level, in our view.

Here is a brief description of Stockton’s outstanding, troubled debt issues:

  1. 2003 Housing Certificates of Participation issued for library, main police station and fire stations 1,5,14- restructured with continued general fund backstop
  2. 2004 Arena, Ed Coy, Market Street Parking Garages- impaired, city no longer has possessory interest in garages and intends to pay nothing from the general fund
  3. 2006 Lease Rental Revenue Bonds for Eberhardt Office Building and SEB garage-restructured, eliminating general fund payments as a backstop
  4. 2007 Pension Obligation Bonds- 83% percent impaired, 17% secured by various revenue streams
  5. 2007 Variable Rate Demand Obligations for office building- restructured and continued general fund backstop
  6. 2009 Lease rental Revenue Bonds for golf courses and parks-restructured with no general fund payments, pledge, backstop, PFF revenue only pledge
  7. 2006 Department of Boating and Waterway Loan- impaired with no general fund payments, pledge, backstop

Bernardi Securities, Inc. portfolio managed client accounts never owned any of these debt issues and here’s why:

– All issues exhibited average to below average underlying credit quality at time of issuance.

– Only #1 and #4 possess essential deal purpose, as we define the term.

– Only #2, #3, #5 exhibit sound deal structure.

In summary, none of the issues possess all three pillars, two possess none, and five possess only one pillar which we do not view is at a high level.

What was our conclusion from our analysis? Do not invest in any
 of these issues.
There are plenty of quality municipal bonds available to investors today. Fewer than in years past, no doubt, but a healthy supply still exists. Analyzing and understanding municipal bond credit is a process and often it is a tedious one. For that reason, we remain municipal bond specialists.

I hope you find this letter helpful. Thank you for your continued confidence.

Sincerely,
Ronald P. Bernardi
President and CEO
Bernardi Securities, Inc.
April 10, 2013

“Washington, D.C., March 11, 2013-The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged the State of Illinois with securities fraud for misleading municipal bond investors about the state’s approach to funding its pension obligations.”
SEC memo headline, 2013-37 click to read

“Illinois believed it to be in its best interests to enter into a settlement with the SEC….the State has cooperated fully with the SEC throughout the inquiry…..the State neither admits nor denies the findings in the order, which carries no fines or penalties.”
Statement from the governor’s Office of Management and Budget

The cold winds of mid-March blew strong through the state capitol both meteorologically and metaphorically speaking.

The SEC settlement is sandwiched between the state’s January failed bond auction and its scheduled April 2nd redo auction of upwards of $800 million of various types of general obligation bonds. State officials have travelled across the country in recent months in hopes of easing concern over its battered credit and stressing its pension disclosure has been greatly improved in the last two years. Market reaction to the upcoming auction will tell us much about investors’ interest in lending to the State of Illinois. Currently, investors demand approximately 125 basis points extra yield to buy 10 year State of Illinois bonds.

The significant negativity surrounding State of Illinois credit aside, there is the potential the SEC settlement is an augur its finances will improve from their current low point. Perhaps it hit rock bottom this month. Time will tell and much, much work is needed, no doubt, before we are convinced of this possibility (our outlook for many local credits located within the state remains positive).

But here are a few observations to consider regarding certain events this month:

  1. The SEC settlement over charges of misleading public pension disclosures concerns years between 2005 and 2009. According to the SEC order, since then Illinois has taken multiple steps beginning in 2009 to correct deficiencies and enhance pension disclosures. We believe the settlement will result in better disclosure by the State going forward. This is a credit positive. 
  2. In recent weeks, various pension reform proposals have been put forth for votes in both chambers by both Democrat and Republican legislators. One, serious effort was a bi-partisan proposal. This is progress when compared to the inaction of recent years. We remain wary until pension reform legislation passes both the House and the Senate, legislation that does more than nibbles at the edges of the underfunding problem. Clearly, enactment of a substantive solution needs to occur soon given the State’s fiscal 2014 general fund budget increases pension payments by $900 million to $ 6 billion. This represents 19% of the general fund budget compared to 8% in 2008. 
  3. An Illinois judge’s dismissal this month of litigation challenging the state’s retirement health care reforms is also a credit positive, if upheld. Last year the state enacted legislation revamping retired state employees’ post- employment benefits (OPEB). The legislation requires retirees to pay a greater share of health care premium costs based on their income. For decades the state fully covered the health care premiums of those who retired prior to 1998. Until last year’s change, post 1998 retirees received a 5% health care premium subsidy from the state for every year of employment.

Siding with the State’s position, Sangamon County Circuit Court Judge Steven Nardulli wrote “health insurance benefits are not guaranteed pension benefits protected by the Pension Protection Clause.”

Governor Pat Quinn was naturally pleased with the ruling stating, “This is good news for the taxpayers and another step forward in our effort to restore fiscal stability to Illinois.”

The ruling will result in significant budget savings. The state funded, health care subsidy amounts to almost $900 million in the current fiscal year.

The ruling will most likely be appealed so a resolution of this issue is still uncertain. Nonetheless, the ruling may motivate opposing parties to agree to an overall pension agreement in order to reduce risking an even less favorable outcome.

TALE OF TWO CITIES-STOCKTON AWAITS, PROVIDENCE MOVES FORWARD

U. S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher M. Klein will rule the first week of April if Stockton, California can remain in bankruptcy. If the Judge rules favorably for Stockton, it will be protected from creditor lawsuits and free to pursue its debt reduction plan which includes more than a $300 million haircut to debt holders. If successful, this reduction in outstanding liabilities would represent approximately 44% of the concessions called for in the city’s reorganization plan. Debt service currently amounts to less than 10% of its baseline expenses. The City’s plan does not reduce pension payments to California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CALPERS), its largest creditor, and does not raise any new taxes or fees. Creditors are upset the City failed to seek any impairment of its single largest unpaid liability owed to CALPERS.

Last week a city forecast showed its annual budget deficits may total $100 million over the next decade even with all of the cuts it wanted before filing Chapter 9.

Three thousand miles to the east a court decision moved a municipality’s financial distress in a positive direction when a Rhode Island Superior Court Judge ruled the settlement negotiated between Providence, Rhode Island and its retired police and firemen is “fair, adequate and reasonable.”

Judge Sarah Taft-Carter’s ruling allows parties to finalize an agreement that suspends cost of living adjustments (COLA) for 10 years and eliminates a 5%-6% COLA compounding formula. Additionally, retirees older than 65 years will move onto Medicare coverage.

The City’s annual required pension payment was $58 million in 2012 approximately 19% of its budget, up from 13% in 1996. According to the city, it would have increased to $94 million by 2022 absent this agreement. The city cut overall spending in its fiscal year 2012 by approximately $100 million with 20% of the cuts coming in the pension area. It expects to have a balanced budget in 2013.

WAYS AND MEANS HEARS ABOUT TAX-EXEMPTION

“One of the great achievements of this country is its extensive infrastructure. For those of us that live here, we take it for granted that we can drive on roads to work, take our children to schools, turn on our faucets and get clean water, and know that there are police and courts to protect us. Yet for visitors, especially those from governmental agencies of developing nations, our infrastructure is a marvel that they wish to emulate.”

Statement of Christopher A. Taylor, former Executive Director, Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board to Committee of House Ways and Means, March 19, 2013

Mr. Taylor’s opening statement to House Ways and Means concisely and powerfully explains the vital importance of maintaining the tax-exempt status of public purpose municipal bonds.

Last month, we alerted issuer clients in advance, that the House Ways and Means Committee was meeting on March 19 to hear testimony on” Tax Reform and Tax Provisions Affecting State and Local Governments”. Additionally, in advance of the hearing we provided Chairman David Camp and Committee members Danny Davis, Thomas E, Price, Peter J. Roskam and Aaron Schock with a copy of our recently published white paper, “Repealing Tax Exemption-Impact on Small and Medium Sized Communities.” click to read.

Four nationally recognized experts addressed the Committee and shared their views on the subject at hand. The pro-exemption testimony was outstanding, explaining the critical role the current tax-exempt market plays in improving the everyday lives of citizens across the nation. Points made include:

-three quarters of all United States infrastructure investments are financed by tax-exempt bonds issued by more than 50,000 state and local governmental units

-virtually all long term tax-exempt bond issues finance capital investment

-the legal concept of intergovernmental immunity secures the right of state and local governments to raise capital to make local infrastructure investments independently of the federal government

-the perception the tax-exempt exclusion is merely a benefit for upper income investors is wrong because the distributional methods used by Treasury assume incorrectly all benefits of the exclusion flow to the investor. Treasury’s calculation methods ignore the implicit tax borne by the investor in the form of a lower interest rate earned. This is a cost borne by the investor. If tax- exemption is repealed, much of the burden from repeal would fall onto state and local governments which would be forced to pay higher borrowing costs. These increased costs would be passed onto residents.

-the tax exempt market exhibits certain inefficiencies, as do all financial markets; reinstating a modified Build America Bond program as an issuance option for state and local governments coupled with a reduction in the number of tax brackets and the nominal rate of the top bracket will go a long way to improving market efficiency.

Support for maintaining tax-exemption of public purpose bond issues came from members of both parties and was generally widespread. Here is a sample of some of the remarks made during the course of the hearing:

“Every single taxpayer in my district will have an increase in their taxes”(if tax-exemption is repealed) “ All we’re going to be doing is passing that tax down to another level.”
Representative Kenny Marchant, Texas Republican

“I’m having a hard time figuring out what the upside of getting rid of municipal bonds is…….how are we going to get the infrastructure built?”
Representative James McDermott, Massachusetts Democrat

“tax-exempt municipal bonds are the most important tool in the U.S. for financing investments in schools, roads, bridges, water and sewer systems. The reality is these projects just wouldn’t happen without muni bonds.”

Representative Richard Neal, Massachusetts Democrat

Private activity bonds (PABs) did not fare so well and were heavily criticized during the hearing.

All in all, the hearing was a positive event for maintaining tax-exemption of public purpose municipal bond issues while the validity of tax-exempt PABs was questioned.

The apparent success of the hearing aside, we remain wary. In Washington, statements are often made for public consumption, but in the end all that matters is the vote count.

We will continue to lead on this topic and keep you informed as new developments occur.

We hope you find our commentary helpful. Thank you for your continued confidence.

Sincerely,
Ronald P. Bernardi
President and CEO
Bernardi Securities, Inc.
April 1, 2013

“The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.” Text of the Sixteenth Amendment, ratified February 3, 1913

This year marks the 100th anniversary of the 16th Amendment legalizing federal income taxation. Importantly, unlike any other deductions, the Revenue Act of 1913 exempted municipal bond income from federal taxation. Lawmakers took this action to help ensure the financial independence of sub-national governments from the federal government remembering Chief Justice John Marshall’s words “the power to tax involves the power to destroy.” (McColloch vs. Maryland, 1819)

One hundred years later, the federal tax-exemption of municipal bond income is seriously threatened by outright repeal or the imposition of a substantive cap, a retroactive tax for certain investors.

We have invested a great deal of time and energy over the last 18 months researching and writing about the critical role the tax-exempt bond market plays in our everyday lives:

– financing low cost, public purpose facilities (schools, village halls, municipal facilities, courts, jails, water plants)
– creating well-paying construction and sustainable service jobs
– providing communities access to private investor capital to finance projects they need, want and are willing to pay for

In December of 2011, we published an extensive white paper on this issue, “Tax Exempt Municipal Bonds-The Case for an Efficient, Low Cost, Job Creating Tax Expenditure

This past week, we released our most recent study on the issue, “Repealing Tax-Exemption-Impact on Small and Medium sized Communities

The report quantifies the increased cost two Illinois issuers incur if the tax-exempt financing mechanism is repealed. Our data is based on actual numbers and market facts; it is not grounded in a multitude of abstractions and assumptions.

The increased financing costs cited in our study represent cost increases these two communities face if they lose their right to issue tax-exempt municipal bonds. The report should serve as a warning for communities across the country.

We ask you to read the report and call with any questions and I would be pleased to discuss the issue with you.

We suggest you call or write your U.S. Congressman, Senator Durbin, Senator Kirk as well as your state legislator and tell them how you feel about this issue.

Sincerely,
Ronald P. Bernardi
Bernardi Securities, Inc.
February 14, 2013

The first month of 2013 began quietly for the municipal bond market. It ended, here in Illinois, with a thud.

This month brings us the thirteenth year of the third millennium as measured by the Gregorian calendar. The Chinese calendar recognizes 2013 as the year of the black snake. The Mayan Long Count Calendar doesn’t recognize 2013 at all since it called for an apocalypse in 2012.

Here in Illinois, 2013 may be remembered as the year of the bond-market vigilantes.

Illinois downgraded, $500M bond issue postponed

Last week, the State of Illinois postponed a $500 million general obligation competitive bond sale following a credit rating downgrade. Standard and Poor’s rating agency downgraded the State’s rating to A- from A, the worst among all states. Officials pulled the bond deal after conversations with potential bidders led them to conclude demand for the State’s bonds was tenuous. They wisely postponed the financing recognizing the state’s borrowing cost would have been far greater than most current market rates.

The market’s reaction was not surprising to us, though it was painful to witness. Many would argue it was overdue. Lack of action in Springfield on reforming the state’s vastly underfunded pension system and reducing its backlog of $8 billion in unpaid bills has frustrated the rating agencies and many investors for years.

Bond vigilantes turn to Illinois

In the 1980’s and early 1990’s bond vigilantes (BV’s) dominated the market and greatly influenced monetary and fiscal policy. This amorphous group was widely feared leading James Carville, a Clinton administration strategist to quip, “I used to think if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everyone.”

The actions of bond market vigilantes, in recent years, have been less intimidating. The group of 7 who office at 20th Street and Constitution Avenue and their numerous QE iterations have co-opted the group’s influence. BV bond sales to protest fiscal policy are no match for the Fed’s printing press and its related treasury debt buying binge and balance sheet expansion.

The story line in Illinois is different. Feeling unappreciated by many in Washington, bond vigilantes turned their attention on our home state last week clearly reversing a trend of low cost capital for the Prairie State.

Illinois headline risk & your municipal bond portfolio

Some clients have asked for our assessment of what last week’s events mean for Illinois, its local government municipal credits and, in particular, their portfolios. So here are several thoughts.

In general, the headlines may be somewhat disconnected as it relates to a particular bond portfolio.

Specifically, here are some thoughts and questions to consider pertaining to a portfolio:

  • Are there any State of Illinois or any state agency issues present in the portfolio? If so, what is the percentage exposure? Furthermore, are there any issues in the portfolio related to the State’s university system as it is heavily reliant on state funding? Depending on what the review uncovers, it may be prudent to reduce the portfolio exposure, if any exists, in these credits. Keep in mind, future headline risk may also threaten market values of these issuers. Nearly four years ago, we ceased adding these issues to our discretionary, portfolio managed accounts. Additionally, over this period we actively sold many existing positions of these issuers taking gains as interest rates have tumbled. We do not intend to begin adding these issuers until the State presents a practical solution and we see evidence of improvements in its financial picture.
  • What is the portfolio’s state composition? Which states comprise the largest percentage? You may want to reduce state allocation in certain cases where the allocation exceeds your comfort level especially if there is no state income tax exemption benefit.
  • Are all of the credits in the portfolio on an approved credit list and how financially dependent is each credit on the State of Illinois for revenue? At this time, we see no need to sell Illinois municipal credits that are on our approved list solely because of last week’s events. There are many solid quality local municipal bond credits located in Illinois. Additionally, due to the “halo effect” (see Senator Mark Kirk’s 2011 report , “Report on Illinois Debt”) most Illinois municipal issues offer higher yields than similar quality and maturity issues outside of Illinois. They are forced to pay a yield premium because of the State’s weak financial position. We view this as an opportunity for investors.

To reiterate, you have heard us say and we have written many times over the years about these recurring themes:

  • Underlying credit quality matters. We have preached this theme for years (see “To Be or Not To be AAA rated”, Fall of 2000).
  • Our portfolio management process starts with credit research. And our credit research process focuses on three pillars: deal purpose, deal structure and underlying credit quality (see “Credit Research Matters More than Ever”, November 2010).

These two disciplines are the foundation upon which we base our bond portfolio management process.

Clearly, poor state finances effects jurisdictions located within the state’s boundaries, but not uniformly. This is one credit metric we examine as part of our credit research process.

Generally, the State of Illinois continues to remit funds it collects (sales tax, school district general state aid, etc…) on behalf of local jurisdictions in a timely manner. The State is delaying school district categorical aid payments and, in many instances, this is problematical for the affected school district. These payment delays have affected certain districts’ programming (lunch, bus and after school activities, as examples), but do not directly threaten principal and interest payments on unlimited tax general obligation bond payments.

The 5th most populous state deserves better

Last week’s sobering news aside, Illinois remains this nation’s 5th most populous state with an abundance of natural resources, an educated work force, and a diverse and highly developed economic base. The City of Chicago is one of the world’s most vibrant cities and a leading financial center. Some of the nation’s finest universities are located in the state. Illinois is at the crossroads of America and, in many respects, serves as a microcosm of our country. Its residents deserve far better than what has been delivered to them in the last 10 years. Let’s hope the events of last week motivate state legislators to enact a sensible plan that begins to rehabilitate the state’s financial standing.

We hope this commentary is helpful to you. Please call us if you have any questions or would like us to help you review your portfolio.

Sincerely,

Ronald P. Bernardi
President and CEO
Bernardi Securities, Inc.
February 5, 2013